Friday, August 24, 2012

Mobile price war not ending soon


By Gareth Vorster | 23 August 2012 


The price war between South Africa’s mobile operators is set to continue thanks to the headroom in the local market for further price cuts, according to an analyst.

Despite numerous aggressively-priced voice and mobile data products launched by Cell C recently, the company’s CEO, Alan Knott-Craig, told MyBroadband there is a lot more to come from the company.

An analyst at financial services company, PSG Konsult, told BusinessTech that Cell C’s marketing campaigns have highlighted aggressive moves from the operator in the mobile space.

“It will be interesting to see how this pricing war plays out – particularly between Cell C, MTN, and Vodacom – as South Africa still has some of the most expensive pricing in the world. There is still plenty of room to bring these prices down further, cutting margins,” the analyst said.

Interestingly the analyst omitted 8ta, Telkom’s mobile arm.

By close of play on the JSE on Thursday (23 August), shares in Telkom breached R20 (R20.10) for the first time in several months, advancing 81 cents, or 34.20%, in intraday trade, taking its market cap beyond R10 billion (R10.46 billion).

The PSGK analyst said it was difficult to provide a range for the group, as investors await further clarity on an advised strategy from the Department of Communications.

At the start of June, Cabinet asked the minister of the  DoC, Dina Pule, to report back to it about all the options that are available for Telkom in three months’ time (August), after government blocked the SA operator’s deal with KT Corp.

“Investors are waiting to see if the company will continue as a private entity or whether government will take control,” the analyst said.

He noted the rising share price for Vodacom was most likely as a result of Vodacom’s continued strategy to “pay a nice dividend” along with its attractive yield. “Investors are chasing yields at the moment.”

In the year to date period, shares in Vodacom have moved from R89.11, to R103.42 by close on Thursday – an intraday rise of 1.68% , setting the telco at a market cap of R153.88 billion. It reached a year-to-date best of R110.89 in April.

For MTN, the analyst pointed to some profit taking, following a good run in recent sessions.

“I still think MTN can reach its top estimates (R160) and even move beyond that. We back MTN due to its geographic diversity in Africa and the Middle East. With MTN in so many markets, it is less constrained to one country, which means that it wont feel the effects of a price war to the same extent as, say, Vodacom.”

In the year-to-date period, shares in MTN have moved from R144.50 to a closing price of R156.94 on Thursday, giving the group a market cap of  R295.83 billion.


Thursday, August 16, 2012

Android rules rest of world - www.gadget.co.za


14 Aug 2012 by Editor | Filed in Mobile
Android rules rest of world
Recent research by Gartner has revealed that although the worldwide sales of mobile phones declined by 2.3% in the second quarter of 2012, smartphones sales increased by 42.7%, with Android extending its lead over iOS.

Worldwide sales of mobile phones to end users reached 419 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a 2.3 per cent decline from the second quarter of 2011, according to Gartner. Smartphone sales accounted for 36.7 per cent of total mobile phone sales and grew 42.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.

"Demand slowed further in the second quarter of 2012," said Anshul Gupta, principal research analyst at Gartner. "The challenging economic environment and users postponing upgrades to take advantage of high-profile device launches and promotions available later in the year slowed demand across markets. Demand of feature phones continued to decline, significantly weakening the overall mobile phone market.

"High-profile smartphone launches from key manufacturers such as the anticipated Apple iPhone 5, along with Chinese manufacturers pushing 3G and preparing for major device launches in the second half of 2012, will drive the smartphone market upward. However, feature phones will continue to see pressure," Mr Gupta said.

In the second quarter of 2012, Samsung's mobile phone sales remained very strong — up 29.5 per cent from the second quarter of 2011 (see Table 1), and managed to extend its lead over both Apple and Nokia quarter-on-quarter. This quarter's growth was driven by record sales of Galaxy smartphones, meaning smartphones now account for 50.4 per cent of all Samsung mobile devices, or 45.6 million units. Demand for the new Galaxy S3 was particularly strong, exceeding Samsung's own expectations, with a reported 10 million units reached in the two months after its release. The Galaxy S3 was the best-selling Android product in the quarter and could have been higher but for product shortages.

In the second quarter of 2012, consumer demand for the Apple iPhone weakened as sales fell 12.6 per cent from the first quarter of 2012, but grew 47.4 per cent year-on-year. Depending on the exact launch date of the new iPhone, Apple might experience another weaker-than-usual quarter in the third quarter of 2012, while Apple will be ready to take advantage of the strong holiday sales in North America and Western Europe that have historically remained immune to economic pressure.

"Samsung and Apple continued to dominate the smartphone market, together taking about half the market share, and widening the gap to other manufacturers. No other smartphone vendors had share close to 10 per cent," Mr Anshul said. "In the race to be top smartphone manufacturer in 2012, Samsung has consistently increased its lead over Apple, and its open OS market share increased to one-and-a-half times that of Apple in the second quarter of 2012."

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Device Sales to End Users by Vendor in 2Q12 (Thousands of Units)
Company
2Q12
Units
2Q12 Market Share (%)
2Q11
Units
2Q11 Market Share (%)
90,432.1
21.6
69,827.6
16.3
Nokia
83,420.1
19.9
97,869.3
22.8
Apple
28,935.0
6.9
19,628.8
4.6
ZTE
17,936.4
4.3
13,070.2
3.0
LG Electronics
14,345.4
3.4
24,420.8
5.7
Huawei Device
10,894.2
2.6
9,026.1
2.1
TCL Communications
9,355.7
2.2
7,938.9
1.9
HTC
9,301.2
2.2
11,016.1
2.6
Motorola
9,163.2
2.2
10,221.4
2.4
Research In Motion
7,991.2
1.9
12,652.3
3.0
Others
137,233.4
32.8
152,989.70
35.7
Total
419,007.90
100.0
428,661.15
100.0
Source: Gartner (August 2012)

Nokia's mobile phone sales declined 14.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. Nokia is battling fiercely with white-box and new emerging device manufacturers to defend its feature phones sales. Nokia succeeded, to a certain extent, in winning feature phone market share as its sales grew quarter-on-quarter. While posting sequential growth in the feature phone market, Nokia's Lumia devices continue to struggle to find a place in consumers' minds as a replacement for Android.

"Declining smartphone sales is worsening Nokia's overall position, as it had already lost the No. 1 position to Samsung in the previous quarter and is facing reduced profitability due to continuous declining sales of premium smartphones," said Mr Gupta.

In the smartphone OS market, Android extended its lead with an increase of 20.7 percentage points in market share in the second quarter of 2012 (see Table 2). While Apple's iOS market share slightly grew year over year (0.6 per cent), it declined 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, as users postponed their upgrade decisions in most markets ahead of the upcoming launch of the iPhone 5.

Gartner analysts said the arrival of the iPhone 5 should provide the greatest upgrade opportunity yet as the expected new design with a larger screen and likely other stylistic changes to the form factor will certainly make a strong case for iPhone 4 users to upgrade.

Table 2
Worldwide Mobile Device Sales to End Users by Operating System in 2Q12 (Thousands of Units)
Operating System
2Q12
Units
2Q12 Market Share (%)
2Q11
Units
2Q11 Market Share (%)
Android
98,529.3
64.1
46,775.9
43.4
iOS
28,935.0
18.8
19,628.8
18.2
Symbian
9,071.5
5.9
23,853.2
22.1
Research In Motion
7,991.2
5.2
12,652.3
11.7
Bada
4,208.8
2.7
2,055.8
1.9
Microsoft
4,087.0
2.7
1,723.8
1.6
Others
863.3
0.6
1,050.6
1.0
Total
153,686.1
100.0
107,740.4
100.0
Source: Gartner (August 2012)